Maharashtra, one of the most politically central and economically developed states in India, has very recently conducted an election that has caught the attention of the nation as a whole. No sooner had the elections been announced than the hype surrounding the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections surpassed all expectations with the highest voter turnout recorded in more than thirty years. In this election, parties Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) (NCP(SP)-Shiv Sena (UBT)-Congress) clashed head on for supremacy in a state which has always boasted of dominating political juggernauts.
As the results nears, impossible not to indulge in a lot of speculation since numerous exit polls predict that BJP and its allies are likely to emerge victorious, thus deciding to extend the rule in the state. Although the political dynamics within the state of Maharashtra have changed over time hence this election marks a significant branding moment for fifty years old parties like shiv sena and national congress party (NCP) of India, making them worse off after braving their in-fighting and the political storms which followed the insurgency within them.
The Major Political Players
Mahayuti: BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP
The Mahayuti, an alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena and NCP has been in power for several terms now and has been at the helm of politics in Maharashtra for the longest time. The BJP is also the political party in question, which has expanded its base across the region. The situation, however, has changed, and issues have cropped up, particularly after the 2019 elections in Maharashtra, when the Shiv Sena left the coalition and formed the government with the NCP and the Congress leaving out the BJP; still, the BJP has managed to bounce back considering itself as the key player in the region’s casinos and entertainment industry.
Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena was an ally of BJP in the past. However the relations soured over the issue of leadership post 2019 elections. Since that time, the Shiv Sena had its own share of troubles as it faced internal and external factors which caused disruption, particularly after the fallout from the Eknath Shinde led uprising, which caused a rift in the party. In spite of all the fissures within, the BJP has successfully managed to get into coalition with disgruntled groups of the Shiv Sena and NCP, (the cabbage headed faction led by Ajit Pawar and his clique), thereby further strengthening the Mahayuti.
Maha Vikas Aghadi: NCP(SP)-Shiv Sena (UBT)-Congress
The Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition which aligns the Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Congress Party has developed into the primary adversary of the BJP’s Mahayuti. This coalition was put together after the post-2019-Civil-War version of the Shiv Sena and is busy elbowing itself into the Bastion of Power with various ethnic groups organized under the umbrella of Maharashtra’s politics.
‘Shiv Sena’ (UBT) leader, Uddhav Thackeray has been antagonistic towards BJP and has alleged that BJP has betrayed the real principles of Shiv Sena politics. The NCP headed by Sharad Pawar has also had to face similar turmoil when a revolt came from within the party resulting in two NCPs. One led by Ajit Pawar, has joined hands with the BJP while the other has remained with the MVA.
The Congress Party, too a constituent of the MVA alliance, has also had her share of ‘internal problems’, but has so far remained dedicated to the alleviation of the BJP’s rule. The MVA thinks that they can offer a rational alternative to the government ruled by the BJP; however, the warring factions of the alliance, especially on issues of leadership, governance, and control, are of great concern.
A Record Voter Turnout
In Maharashtra’s 2024 elections, the students or the educated section of the state voted in large numbers, touching a turnout level not achieved in almost three decades. This high level of voter turnout is indicative of the people’s intention to take charge, and especially so, when governance and the state of affairs of the economy and development take the center stage in politics. The rise in voter turnout is also symptomatic of the rise in political awareness and commitment especially by the young and the disenfranchised sections of the society, who have been previously less active during elections.
Voting is very important in an election, and that will also affect the outcome, especially with such a big number of people coming out. The increasing participation of the youth in the electoral process may equally suggest a change in the political leaning of the regions, most especially city centers, as there has been a widening chasm between old and new politics in these circles.
Key Issues in the Election
The Shiv Sena and NCP Split
One of the most crucial aspects of the political situation in Maharashtra and more of the Maharashtra elections in 2024 concerns the effects of the division in the Shiv Sena as well as the NCP which has complicated the political scene. In the year 2022, Eknath Shinde did not adhere to the norms of the Shiv Sena and led a rebellion that formed two factions: the UBT Shiv Sena and the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena that joined the BJP. This division has positively disturbed the political equations in the state of Maharashtra resulting in the formation of new partnerships and even coalitions.
In like manner, the NCP has not withstood coalescing with the MVA, since Ajit Pawar has decided to work with the BJP, while the others in the party stay with the MVA in Maharashtra. This division did not only disintegrate the opposition parties, but also made predictions about the existence and prospective of these entities impossible. The ultimate question remains however, if these opposing sections will be able to assemble and fight as one against the dominating presence of the BJP, or not.
One of the most crucial aspects of the Maharashtra 2024 elections is the fallout from the split in the Shiv Sena and NCP, which has fractured the political landscape. The rebellion within the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde in 2022, led to the creation of two factions: the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Shiv Sena led by Shinde, which has since aligned with the BJP. This split has significantly altered the political equations in Maharashtra, creating new alliances and coalitions.
In the same way, even the NCP seems to have been undivided in deciding to work with the MVA, as Ajit Pawar had opted to work with the BJP, while the others in the party have remained in the MVA in Maharashtra. Such a split did not however only serve to incapacitate the opposition parties but also created a vacuum in the projections about the current and the future prospects of these parties. The question however, remains if these opposing sections will be able to assemble and fight as one against the encroaching influence of the BJP or not.
Bitcoin Scam Controversy
Prior to the polls, Maharashtra politics found itself in a turmoil over a multi-crore bitcoin scandal where politicians such as NCP’s Supriya Sule and state Congress president Nana Patole were allegedly implicated. The opposition claimed the ruling BJP was trying to blame others and deflect attention that stemmed from its own inadequacies. The bitcoin fraud, which encompassed the charges of conspiracy and manipulation in finance, has brought disputes among the factions.
The BJP-led administration has refuted any allegations of misconduct and categorically rejected the claims as pure political vendettas. This however has only served to reinforce the existing narrative that the fall of the Opposition Within United States was due to extensive corruption and gross inability to govern.
Cash-for-Votes Allegations
The cash-for-votes scandal, which cast a cloud over the election campaign, also included allegations against BJP National General Secretary Vinod Tawde. The opposition party further discussed that Tawde had given out rupees five crores to sway the outcome of the elections in favor of BJP, calling doubts on the credibility of the election process. Tawde strongly refuted the claims, asserting that the allegations were only a tactic by his close competitors to tarnish his reputation.
This cash-for-votes scandal is just the most recent of the many instances of corruption that have been associated with Indian elections in the last few years. The BJP, in this respect, has attempted to clear their name but to no avail, while the opposition has weaponized this issue to show the BJP’s democratic facades as nothing but a cover for corrupt means in winning elections.
The Challenge of Choosing a Chief Minister
In case of a win for the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, it comes with a major challenge, And that’s who will be the new Chief Minister. MVA includes parties with conflicting political beliefs, and although they have managed to beat the odds and stand up against the BJP without falling apart, the issue of leadership still exists.
Uddhav Thackeray who served as the chief minister of Maharashtra from 2019 to 2022 will most likely lay a claim on the position. But Ajit Pawar from NCP, recognition, and a well-known political face in Maharashtra, who has a great hold over his party, may also throw his hat in the ring. Internal power disputes within the MVA might lead to chaos as every joined force within the coalition aims to avoid weakness by reinforcing its position.
Conclusion
The 2024 elections in Maharashtra hold a defining moment in the political landscape of the state. There is growing optimism among the allies of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance with several victory forecasts in most exit polls by the opposition earning the name Mahavikas Aghadi. The vertical division of Shiv Sinas and NCP alongside the charges of bribery and bad governance have further deteriorated the political atmosphere.
Though there are no finishing scores to compare, the election process is more than just an acquisition of state power, it is a struggle for the very soul of Maharashtra. Political parties engage in a sort of trench warfare in which time and leadership, governance, and most importantly the confidence of the people who support one of the political factions will be the deciding factor in the formation of the next government. The 2024 Maharashtra elections will have an effect on the politics of the state; whether good or bad, the effects will be felt for a long time to come.
